CORNBREAD INDEX
Data. Matchups. Noon Games.
Noon Game Analysis
Sat · Oct 17, 202612:00 PM ET
Texas Longhorns
#7 · SEC
4-1, 1-1 SEC
Florida Gators
SEC
4-2, 2-2 SEC
Cornbread Index
Conviction: HIGH. Texas wins early downs, chokes off Florida’s run game, forces long-yardage situations and makes a limited Aaron Philo beat an elite defense on the road.
Metric Breakdown
Score
Spread
Texas -11.5
Total
51.5
Location
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Austin, TX
Cornbread Takeaway
Stop Baugh, create negative plays, force Florida into 2nd/3rd-and-long and let the pass rush end drives. Projected Texas 30-13. Playable to -12; reassess at -14.
Texas allows just 264.4 yards per game and leads the SEC with 40 TFL (8.0/game), built to stop RB Jadan Baugh. Florida QB Aaron Philo (shoulder) and WRs Vernell Brown III and Bailey Stockton are questionable, and RB Duke Clark is out. Florida allows 5.6 yards per play and 37.5 points per game in SEC play — a big step down from Ohio State, Tennessee and Oklahoma. Texas has won 12 straight at home; Florida is 11-29 away from The Swamp since 2020. The risk: Texas’ offense stalls into field goals and Florida backdoors a 23-17 or 27-17 finish.
Do you agree with Izzy's pick?
Most Recent Result
2026 · Week 6
Izzy's Pick
Missouri -3.5
Opponent
Texas A&M
Result
Win2026 Season ATS
5-1
83.3% win rate · 6 graded
Noon Games ATS
20-10-3
66.7% win rate · The Cornbread Special
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30-27-3
All-Time ATS
52.6%
Win Rate
5
Seasons